[China Net Review] Take history as a mirror： the ＂China threat theory＂ is not an excuse for Japan to expand its armaments.

　　China network commentator Le Shui

　　This year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. On September 29, 1972, the Chinese and Japanese governments jointly issued the Sino-Japanese Joint Statement in Beijing, and made a commitment to "confirm that all disputes between them should be settled by peaceful means without resorting to force or threat of force". However, after a lapse of half a century, the Japanese government is trampling on the peace promise of that year step by step and going further and further on the road of arms expansion.

　　On December 23, the Japanese government decided at the cabinet meeting to substantially increase the defense budget for fiscal year 2023 by 26% to 6.8 trillion yen. Among them, the budget for purchasing long-range offensive missiles has increased most significantly, reaching 1.4 trillion yen. In fact, Japan’s military expansion has been heralded a few days ago. On December 16th, the Japanese government adopted three security policy documents: National Security Assurance Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defence Force Maintenance Plan, proposing that Japan will vigorously develop its "counterattack capability" and increase the total defense expenditure to 43 trillion yen in the next five years, reaching 2% of GDP. This move means that the principle of "defending only" that Japan has followed for many years has undergone a major change.

　　Japan has implemented a "peace constitution" known for giving up the right to declare war since its defeat in World War II. Under the constraint of the "Peace Constitution", Japan’s defense forces have always adhered to the principle of "exclusively defending", and the equipped missiles have a range of no more than 200 kilometers. Recently, however, Japan’s defense policy has shown signs of "turning from defensive to offensive". In August this year, Japanese media reported that the Japanese government was considering deploying more than 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to "cover the coastal areas of North Korea and China" and was preparing to develop new missiles with a range of 3,000 kilometers. In addition, the Japanese government also plans to buy 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. These weapons and equipment have obviously exceeded the operational needs of offshore defense.

　　With the aggressive Japanese military expansion plan, the noise of "China threat theory" is also rampant. In the above three security documents, China was clearly defined by the Japanese government as "the biggest strategic challenge ever". During their recent visit to Taiwan, China, senior officials of the Liberal Democratic Party even falsely claimed that "what happens in Taiwan Province is what happens in Japan", intending to challenge the one-China principle and stir up the security situation in East Asia. "Taiwan Province is an inalienable part of Japanese territory", which was confirmed by the Japanese government in the Sino-Japanese Joint Statement. Now, however, Japan regards China’s will to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity as a "strategic challenge" and does not hesitate to threaten with force, and its face of breaking its word and being fat is displayed in front of the world. In fact, Japan’s deliberate exaggeration of the "China threat theory" only creates an excuse for its breakthrough in the "peaceful constitution" and paves the way for its arms expansion. Moreover, this trick of Japan has many precedents in history.

　　In 1880, Tomoto Yamamoto, then Speaker of the Japanese Senate, preached the "threat of Qing Dynasty" in his memorial to Emperor Muren, saying that the Westernization Movement in Qing Dynasty would make China "dominate the world" in a few years, and urged Japan to expand its naval and military forces and step up preparations. Under the clamor of "Qing threat theory", Japan defeated Beiyang Navy in the Sino-Japanese War of 1895, and forced the Qing court to cede Taiwan Province and compensate 200 million taels of silver.

　　After winning the Russo-Japanese War in the early 20th century, Japan seized its rights and interests in the northeast of China. In the late 1920s, Japanese politicians believed that China’s construction of railways and ports in the northeast affected their exclusive rights and interests, so they began to preach the "Manchu-Mongolian crisis theory" and claimed that Japan’s lifeline was threatened. The practical purpose of Japanese politicians’ concoction of "Manchu-Mongolian Crisis Theory" is to stir up anti-China sentiment in Japan and prepare for the "September 18th Incident" in 1931.

　　History will not repeat itself, but it is always strikingly similar. This time, Japan once again moved out of the "China threat theory" just to cover up its long-standing ambition of re-militarization. After World War II, Japanese right-wingers spared no effort to hollow out the "Peace Constitution" in an attempt to put Japan on the road of rearmament. From the establishment of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces in 1954, to the first time Japan sent troops overseas in 1992, and then in 2014, the Abe government passed a resolution in the cabinet to lift the ban on collective self-defense. Japan’s disguised militarization process has continued to advance for nearly 70 years. After the Japanese Senate election in July this year, the number of seats of political parties supporting constitutional amendment has exceeded two-thirds, which meets the necessary conditions for constitutional amendment. Therefore, the last line of defense of the "peace constitution" is also in jeopardy. Now, Japan is standing on the threshold of re-militarization, and its real motive of hyping the "China threat theory" is obvious.

　　The Japanese government’s expansion of armaments under the pretext of "China threat theory", regardless of people’s livelihood, also attracted widespread opposition at home. According to the survey conducted by Kyodo News, 53.6% of Japanese nationals are opposed to increasing defense fees. After investigation, Japan’s "News and Communication Investigation Meeting" found that more than 70% of the respondents opposed Japan’s sending self-defense forces to join hands with the US military to intervene in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In an editorial on 24 December, Asahi Shimbun said with anxiety that under the overlapping influence of current inflation and the depreciation of the yen, the Japanese government, regardless of its own financial resources, will forcibly increase its defense budget, which may lead to an endless arms race.

　　Japanese militarism once brought deep suffering to Asian countries and their own people. However, Japanese right-wingers not only never thoroughly reflected on their crimes, but also tried their best to revive militarism. Only by taking history as a mirror can we face the future. If the Japanese government doesn’t learn the lessons from history seriously, how can it win the trust of its Asian neighbors who were ravaged by Japanese militarism? Today, the security situation in Asia is facing the most severe challenge after World War II. I hope that the Japanese government will stop speculating on the "China threat theory" and pull back from the brink on the wrong road of arms expansion to avoid repeating the historical mistakes of militarism.