Central Asian countries in the situation of Russia and Ukraine： keeping a delicate distance from Russia and approaching the West to hedge risks.
Since Russia launched a "special military action" against Ukraine at the end of February this year, sanctions and counter-sanctions between the West and Russia have been increasing, and their direct and long-term political and economic impacts have gradually emerged. In the five Central Asian countries that once belonged to the former Soviet Union, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has aroused their anxiety, and the attitudes of these countries have become increasingly subtle.
In Kazakhstan, which has just experienced the "January coup", President Tokayev, Foreign Minister and Defense Minister have kept a certain distance from Moscow in public statements. Kazakhstan officially promised not to be a tool to help Russia evade Western sanctions, and received a special visit from the US Deputy Secretary of State. The two countries also announced their intention to expand their high-level strategic partnership.
Uzbekistan is the only Central Asian country that calls on Russia to stop its "aggression". On March 17th, Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov made it very clear at the plenary session of the National Senate (Olij Malis) that "the situation around Ukraine is deeply worrying for Uzbekistan" and "we support seeking a peaceful solution to this situation and resolving this conflict through political and diplomatic means". To this end, "(Russia) must first end its military activities and aggression."
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are more dependent on Russia, and both countries have Russian military bases. After the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan maintained a "cautious silence" and were directly affected by the economic sanctions against Russia. According to the Moscow Times, Tajikistan welcomed at least 60,000 domestic workers who returned from Russia from January to the middle and late April. In March, Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Economy, Amangoli Diyev, held talks with South Korea and Turkey, requesting the latter to relax visa restrictions on Kyrgyz labor immigrants.
Turkmenistan, which pursues isolationism, has been in no hurry to show its position. The new president of Turkmenistan, Kalldahl Berdymukhamedov, has just taken over power from his father, kurban Guli, and is busy adapting to his new role. From the beginning to the end, Turkey hardly cares about what is happening in the outside world.
Kazakhstan and Ukraine are approaching the United States.
May 9 this year is the anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. In order to commemorate the 77th anniversary of the victory over fascist Germany, Russia has started the rehearsal of the Red Square Victory Day military parade in late April. But in Kazakhstan, when the official mentioned the festival, it was clear that it would not be celebrated.
According to the Harbin News Agency, Kazakhstan’s Defense Minister ruslan Zaksilkov told the media after the meeting in Majilis (the lower house of parliament) on April 20th that the cost of a military parade was about 4 billion tenge (about 58.41 million yuan), and Kazakhstan’s national leadership thought it was more important to hold exercises to strengthen the combat effectiveness of the troops. Zaksilkov also stressed that the Defender’s Day of the Motherland of Kazakhstan on May 7 should not be confused with the Victory Day on May 9.
"For example, fuel, travel expenses, meals for troops, etc. Recently, we also held military exercises. Which choice is more important to us-to hold exercises to strengthen the combat effectiveness of the troops or to hold a military parade? We believe that it is a higher priority to complete the instructions of the Supreme Commander and focus on strengthening the combat effectiveness of the troops. " Zach Sirikov said.
Earlier in April, Kazakhstan and the United States announced their intention to expand their high-level strategic partnership, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Civil Security, Democracy and Human Rights Uzla Zeya paid a visit to Kazakhstan on April 11. After the meeting, the First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Ahan Zhehmetulin, said that this dialogue mechanism will provide additional impetus to bilateral relations and promote the democratic agenda of Kazakhstan.
According to Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to the United States, Yerjan Ashkbayev, held a brief meeting with US President Biden during a concierge event at the White House on April 4. The ambassador of Kazakhstan conveyed the greetings of Kazakh President Tokayev on his behalf, and emphasized the willingness to further promote the expansion of strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States. The President of the United States welcomed the continued constructive cooperation between the two countries on hot issues on bilateral and regional agendas.
Sulaimanov, the first deputy director of the President’s Office of Kazakhstan, also made a pro-Western stance early. In an interview with the European media EURACTIV at the end of March, Sulaimanov said that "Kazakhstan will not become a tool to evade the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the European Union". He also said that Kazakhstan respects the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine and will not recognize the independence of Donbass and Crimea in the past and in the future.
Sulaimanov pointed out: "Although we are members of the Eurasian Economic Union like Russia and Belarus, we are also members of the international community. We don’t want the United States and the European Union to impose secondary sanctions on Kazakhstan, so we must prove to our European partners that Kazakhstan will not become a tool for Russia to evade the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. We will abide by the sanctions. "
On February 10th, 2022, in Moscow, Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with visiting Kazakh President Tokayev. 澎湃 image map In January this year, public protests broke out in Kazakhstan due to rising oil prices, which quickly evolved into a high-level coup. At that time, the Russian-led Ji ‘an organization sent troops to express its support at the invitation of Tokayev. With the help of Russian President Putin, it is widely believed that the relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia will be further strengthened.However, after the domestic political turmoil subsided, Tokayev put forward a set of reform plans in his latest State of the Union address on March 16th. He admitted that the current situation in Russia and Ukraine highlighted the importance of national independence and promised to carry out comprehensive political reform.
Tokayev stressed in his State of the Union address that the sovereignty and independence of the country must be safeguarded. "This is our sacred duty to future generations." He said that the people of Kazakhstan now have a deeper understanding of the meaning of independence and a clearer understanding of the importance of peace and stability. "With the sharp deterioration of the geopolitical situation, Kazakhstan is facing unprecedented financial and economic difficulties in modern history."
Uzbekistan is the first Central Asian country to explicitly call on Russia to stop its "invasion" and the country with the most flexible relations with Russia in the region. Uzbekistan is neither a member of the Eurasian Economic Union led by Moscow nor a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and it is relatively free in dealing with Russia than other Central Asian countries.
On March 17th, Uzbek Foreign Minister Kamilov urged both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to reach a diplomatic solution, and bluntly stressed that Russia should stop its "invasion" first. However, Kamilov’s statement did not explicitly blame any party for this conflict.
On the Ukrainian issue, Uzbekistan, like Kazakhstan, is trying to keep a certain "safe distance" from Moscow so as not to be regarded as Russia’s "teammate" by the west, and at the same time try to remain neutral and not to annoy Moscow.
The day after Russia launched the "special military action", the Kremlin issued a statement on February 25, saying that Putin had a telephone conversation with Uzbek President Mirziyoev, who "expressed his understanding of the actions taken by Russia". However, Milziyoev’s spokesperson later posted in English on Facebook: "I want to emphasize that Uzbekistan takes a balanced and neutral position on this issue." "All disputes and differences that arise must be resolved only in accordance with the norms of international law."
Russian President Vladimir Putin shook hands with Uzbek President Mirziyoev. 澎湃 image data map In fact, Uzbekistan has long attached importance to developing relations with the West. President Mirziyoyev opened a new era of reform and opening up in the country in 2016, while actively adjusting foreign policy. In 2018, Mirziyoev visited the United States. The two sides signed "The United States and Uzbekistan: Opening a New Era of Strategic Partnership" and reached an important consensus on military cooperation between the United States and Ukraine. The two sides also signed a trade contract with a cooperation amount of 5 billion US dollars. Trump, then president of the United States, praised the reforms initiated by Uzbekistan at home and promised to support Uzbekistan’s accession to the WTO.Mirziyoyev said that Uzbekistan has resumed its work related to joining the WTO in November 2017. In July 2019, Uzbekistan officially submitted a memorandum on Uzbekistan’s foreign trade system to the WTO. In November of the same year, the European Union announced that it would provide financial support for the country’s accession to the WTO. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in 2019 that under the framework of the "Agreement on Uzbekistan’s Accession to the WTO", the EU allocated 5.2 million euros for it to promote this process.
On March 10th this year, according to the website of the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade of Uzbekistan, the EU and Uzbekistan launched the guiding outline for expanding cooperation from 2021 to 2027. According to the cooperation program, the EU will provide 83 million euros of free aid to Ukraine in 2021-2024, of which 76 million euros will be used to implement joint cooperation projects, technical assistance and budget support, and 7 million euros will be used to support the development of civil society and human rights in Ukraine.
According to the news of Kyodo News Agency on April 15th, Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fang held a video conference with the foreign ministers of five Central Asian countries on the same day, and the participants reached an agreement on continuing close communication. Lin Fang said at the meeting: "Japan will continue to provide cooperation as a reliable main partner for Central Asia." Representatives of Central Asian countries expressed their expectation for Japan’s continued support. In addition, Lin Fangzheng is also coordinating his visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from the end of this month.
"Cautious Silence" in Central Asia
An analysis of an article by Carnegie Center in Moscow on March 30th pointed out that with the "protracted" Russian military action, the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan turned from silent expression of concern to implicit criticism. They allowed some domestic anti-war protests, allowed civil society groups to collect humanitarian aid for Ukraine, and banned the "Z" sign used by local war supporters. The three governments also reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
In Uzbekistan, the government did not approve the so-called "anti-war rally" and controlled the independent reporting of "war" on social media. However, it subtly allowed some public moves in support of Kiev, including allowing demonstrators to display the Ukrainian flag in prominent positions in Tashkent and Samarkand, and tolerating small gatherings outside the Ukrainian Embassy. Neither of these situations will happen without official approval. Uzbekistan, together with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, provided humanitarian assistance and medical supplies to Ukraine.
The Uzbek government has also warned Uzbek immigrants in Russia that if they are recruited into the army or are recruited to serve in the Russian army, they may be sentenced to up to five years in prison for serving in a foreign army-this is a clear warning to Uzbek people, asking them not to actively participate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
In costume rental, which still decided to hold the Victory Day "Immortal Legion" parade, on April 21st, the national security department of Kyrgyzstan called on Kyrgyz businessmen to take off their military uniforms and clothes with the "Z" symbol, and urged citizens not to wear the sign in the parade, and warned that "the act of inciting ethnic discord will bear legal responsibility".
On February 24, 2022, local time, in Crimea, Russian military vehicles were driving. 澎湃 Image After Russia announced the "special military action" against Ukraine, the "Z" pattern painted on thousands of tanks, armored personnel carriers and other vehicles became a symbol of support for Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba issued a message on his personal Twitter on March 29th, calling on all countries to regard the use of the "Z" symbol as an act of openly supporting Russia’s "aggression" against Ukraine, and proposed to criminalize this act.Russia has military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. There are a large number of expatriates working in Russia in these two countries, which have deep political, economic and military ties with Russia. So far, they have been more cautious about the situation in Russia and Ukraine. In Kyrgyzstan, demonstrations against Russian military actions were banned, and the Kyrgyz government fined the protesters in mid-March, but such demonstrations still occur from time to time.
In an interview with national television on March 20th, the vice-president of Kyrgyzstan’s cabinet stressed that every country has the right to "decide its domestic and foreign policies" in accordance with the UN Charter. The Foreign Minister of Kyrgyzstan also reiterated the country’s commitment to the principle of territorial integrity and called for the establishment of a stable humanitarian corridor in Ukraine—these cannot be regarded as support for Russia.
It is worth mentioning that Moscow released a message at the end of February that the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan expressed their understanding of the Russian move, while the Kyrgyz and Ukrainian national news agencies only said that the two sides "exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine" when handling relevant reports. Turkmenistan adheres to its long-term principle of "permanent neutrality" and avoids all public comments.
Apart from a brief mention of the arrest of their citizens in Ukraine, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan have hardly talked openly about this military action. Valentina matviyenko, Chairman of the Russian Federation Council, visited Tajikistan the day after the "Special Military Operation" and held public and private discussions on the Russian side’s reasons. However, the Tajik government did not publicly respond to her statement, nor did it announce any discussions she held with senior officials related to Ukraine. Instead, it focused on the security cooperation between Russia and Tajikistan on the Afghan issue.
The British "Economist" website published an article entitled "Silent Stans" on March 26th, pointing out that five Central Asian countries are walking a tightrope between Russia and Ukraine. None of the five countries strongly condemned Russia’s "invasion" of Ukraine, but none of them publicly expressed their support. The five countries were not forced to follow in Putin’s footsteps and recognized Lugansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
In fact, after Putin signed a presidential decree on the evening of February 21st announcing the recognition of the independence of "Donetsk People’s Republic" and "Lugansk People’s Republic", Central Asian countries were sensitive to the deep meaning behind this move, because the sovereign territory of Central Asian countries in the past 30 years, like Ukraine, began with the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
In view of this, Putin especially emphasized on February 24th that Russia respects and will respect the sovereignty of CIS countries in the future and directly responds to the concerns of Central Asian countries. Putin also said that Russia has been trying to reach an agreement on NATO’s eastward expansion for 30 years, but it has been deceived, pressured and blackmailed. Russia can’t feel safe, nor can it develop and survive, so it carries out "special military action" against Ukraine.
On March 19th, 2022, in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, Kalldahl Berdymukhamedov, the new president of Turkmenistan, was formally sworn in. People’s Vision In Turkmenistan, which pursues isolationism, the new President Kalldahl Berdymukhamedov has just taken power from his father kurban Guli and is busy building his own political team.According to Agence France-Presse reported on March 15th, 64-year-old former Turkish President Berdymukhamedov announced in February that he had made a "difficult decision" considering his age and hoped to hand over the country to a "young leader". A few days later, his son became the designated heir. On March 15th, 40-year-old Kalldahl Berdymukhamedov was officially elected president of the country.
The recent voting patterns of the five Central Asian countries in the United Nations General Assembly also showed their cautious attitude. In addition to Turkmenistan’s absence in two votes, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan abstained in the vote condemning Russia’s "invasion" of Ukraine on March 2, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan abstained. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan all voted against the suspension of Russia’s membership on April 7.
Central Asia’s economic recovery faces uncertain factors.
Since the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the somme in Kyrgyzstan has fallen by 15%, the tenge in Kazakhstan has fallen by 14%, and the somme in Uzbekistan has also depreciated. In a report in early April, the World Bank pointed out that the economy of Central Asia will shrink by 4.1% in 2022 because the impact of the war on the economy has further aggravated the impact of the epidemic. The agency previously predicted that the Central Asian economy is expected to achieve 3% growth this year.
The World Bank also revised its economic forecasts for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the major economies in Central Asia, and lowered their growth forecasts of 3.7% and 6% at the beginning of the year to 1.8% and 3.6% respectively.
The World Bank’s prediction is based on the fact that the Russian economic recession has indirectly damaged Kazakhstan’s supply chain and shaken people’s confidence in the economic prospects. The economies of the countries concerned are highly dependent on the close import and export trade with Russia and Ukraine, as well as the income from remittances from Russia. "Remittance income from Russia accounts for about 30% of GDP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan."
Mamari Nur Muratov, governor of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, pointed out that the amount of funds remitted from Russia decreased greatly in March: the collapse of the ruble and great uncertainty about the future led many Uzbek immigrants in Russia to keep cash. The foreign currency standards of Uzbek banks may change. In 2021, the total remittance of immigrants to Uzbekistan exceeded 8 billion US dollars, and it is expected to drop by more than 20% this year.
According to the Moscow Times reported on April 20th, the economic problems caused by western sanctions in Russia have caused difficulties to about 2.5 million Central Asian workers living and working in Russia. These people are usually distributed in Russian construction, retail and fast food industries, and some of them are considering returning to China. Those who stay will face layoffs, lower wages and fewer employment prospects-because job opportunities are often given priority to Russians.
Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow, said on April 18th that about 200,000 Russian employees working in foreign companies in Moscow were at risk of unemployment because of sanctions imposed on Russia. In this regard, Russia has introduced relevant plans to help these people find jobs. According to data from Yale University School of Management, since Russia launched "special military action" against Ukraine in late February this year, more than 750 companies have publicly announced that they will cut their business in Russia to some extent.
The Moscow Times reported that since the beginning of this year, at least 133,000 labor migrants from Uzbekistan have returned from Russia. Since January, Tajikistan, one of the poorest countries in the region, has welcomed nearly 60,500 returnees. The return of this group of working population is expected to bring pressure to the home country with high unemployment rate and aggravate the unemployment problem.
The impact of the influx of large numbers of people can hardly be reduced to positive or negative. In Uzbekistan, some expatriates, even Russians, came to the country to avoid being involved in the Ukrainian conflict and tried to reintegrate into Uzbekistan. The house price in this country has increased sharply recently, and the rent in Tashkent has also become prohibitive. There are many IT experts among them, so that the Ministry of Interior of Uzbekistan has specially prepared a special entry visa for them.
IT is reported that starting from April 1st, the Uzbek government will issue one-year renewable fast work visas to foreign investors in IT industry. Qualified investors can apply for three-year visas and simplified residence permit procedures for themselves and their families through the recently opened website, and enjoy free education and medical services for their children.
(This article is from The Paper, please download the "The Paper" APP for more original information)
Reporting/feedback