The yen can’t hold on？ The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 100 points increased, and the Bank of Japan took the shot.

According to CCTV news quoted the news of "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" on September 14,On the same day, the Bank of Japan began to implement the exchange rate inspection mechanism, which requires Japan’s major commercial banks to provide the central bank with detailed information on foreign exchange transactions. According to the report, this is regarded as a stronger way than verbal intervention.

In addition, according to the news of Kyodo News quoted by CCTV on the 14th, Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi said at the press conference that day that the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar had changed rapidly.Do not rule out the possibility of intervening in the exchange rate by all means..

As of press time, the exchange rate of USD/JPY was 143.48.

Japan News Agency: The weak tone of the yen will not change much in the short term.

According to the overseas network quoted by the Japan News Agency on September 13,The main reason for the continued depreciation of the yen is the difference in financial policies between the United States and Japan.In order to curb inflation, the United States is tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates substantially, while Japan continues to implement large-scale loose monetary policy to help the economy recover from the epidemic, so the interest difference between the two countries is widening. In addition, because many voices in the market believe that "the financial policies of the United States and Japan will not change for a short time", more people choose to sell the yen and buy dollars, which leads to the rapid depreciation of the yen.

So is the depreciation of the yen beneficial to the Japanese economy? Japan’s current affairs news agency said that in terms of import and export, as many Japanese companies have moved their production bases abroad in recent years, their export advantages have become smaller and smaller; In terms of tourism, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of tourists visiting Japan has decreased sharply, and the "benefits" of the depreciation of the yen are also difficult to play a role; In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused Japan’s energy and food prices to skyrocket. At this time, the depreciation of the yen will bring a huge blow to Japanese enterprises and people’s livelihood.

Image source: Photo Network _501486442

Japan’s current affairs news agency finally pointed out that the depreciation of the yen is in line with the different trends of monetary policies between the United States and Japan. Under the policy background that the United States gives priority to curbing inflation and does not want the dollar to depreciate, it is difficult for the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan to intervene in the market to prevent the yen from depreciating.It is foreseeable that the weak tone of the yen will not change much in the short term.

The possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 100BP in September is 32%, and the spread between Japan and the United States may further expand?

According to CCTV News reported on September 14th, the data released by the US Department of Labor on the same day showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in August this year rose by 0.1% month-on-month, which was 0.1% lower than the market expectation, and rose by 8.3% year-on-year, which was 8.1% higher than the market expectation.

In that month, excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, both higher than market expectations.

As of press time, the data of CME FedWatch tool shows that the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September is 68%.The probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 32%.

Image source: CME FedWatch

The confidence of small and medium-sized enterprises is low, and the enterprise price index has reached a record high.

According to CCTV news reports, the results of a survey jointly released by the Cabinet Office of Japan and the Ministry of Finance on September 13th show that,In the third quarter of this year, the confidence of small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan continued to be sluggish, while the confidence of large enterprises rebounded slightly.

This survey is aimed at enterprises with capital of more than 10 million yen (US$ 1 is about 142 yen), including their feelings about the prosperity, sales, employment situation, equipment investment, etc. It is an important indicator for the government to grasp the investment trend of enterprises and judge the economic situation.

The survey shows that in the third quarter, the confidence index of medium-sized enterprises with capital between 100 million and 1 billion yen fell from negative 2.1 to negative 2.2; The confidence index of small enterprises with capital between 10 million and 100 million yen fell from negative 14.8 to negative 15.9.

Driven by the recovery of confidence in manufacturing enterprises, the confidence index of large enterprises with capital of more than 1 billion yen rose from negative 0.9 in the previous quarter to 0.4. Among them, the confidence index of large manufacturing enterprises rose sharply from negative 9.9 to 1.7, while that of large non-manufacturing enterprises dropped from 3.4 to negative 0.2.

The survey also shows that the confidence of large and medium-sized Japanese enterprises is expected to continue to pick up slightly in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, but the confidence of small enterprises will remain in a low state.

In addition, according to the news of NHK TV on September 13th quoted by overseas network, the preliminary statistics released by the Bank of Japan showed that the enterprise price index rose by 10% year-on-year to 115.1 in August, setting a new record for this statistic.

According to the report, compared with the previous month, Japan’s enterprise price index rose by 9% in August. NHK TV said that the continuous growth of enterprise price index was caused by the high global energy prices such as crude oil and raw material prices. According to data released by the Bank of Japan in early August,In July, the enterprise price index was 114.5, up 8.6% year-on-year, which was higher than the level of the previous year for 17 consecutive months.