The announcement of China’s economic transcripts in the first quarter is expected to usher in a ＂good start＂
BEIJING, Beijing, April 17 (Reporter Li Jinlei) The National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy today to release macroeconomic data such as gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year. Judging from the indicators released in advance and the information released by the government, China’s economy is expected to achieve a good start in the first quarter.
In the first quarter, the economy may usher in a "good start"
The year 2017 is an important year for the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The economic performance of China in the first quarter of this year has attracted much attention from the outside world.
The reporter of Zhongxin. com (WeChat WeChat official account: cns2012) noticed that the current institutions are generally optimistic about the economic growth rate of China in the first quarter. According to the data from Wind, the average forecast value of GDP growth rate of 23 institutions in the first quarter is 6.8%, which is higher than the expected target of around 6.5% for the whole year.
Data Map: A commercial building under construction in Taiyuan, Shanxi. Reporter Zhang Yunshe
"We initially judged that China’s economy achieved a good start in the first quarter." Yan Pengcheng, director and spokesperson of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a news conference on the 13th that China’s economy in the first quarter of this year continued the good momentum since the third quarter of last year, and maintained a steady and progressive development trend.
Some economic data disclosed in advance also confirmed the judgment that China’s economy started well. Among them, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the first quarter increased by 6.9% year-on-year; Railway freight volume increased by 15.3%; In March, the manufacturing PMI was 51.8%, which remained above 51% for six consecutive months. In the first quarter, imports and exports increased by 21.8%, exports by 14.8% and imports by 31.1%. In the first quarter, the central enterprises realized a total profit of 312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%.
Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, told the reporter of Zhongxin.com that in the first quarter, China’s economic operation continued the trend of stabilizing and improving last year, the investment growth rate rebounded, and the supply-side structural reform achieved certain results. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter will be around 6.8%, which is the same as that in the fourth quarter of last year.
In the first quarter, imports and exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year. (Infographic) Photo by Ding Jimin
What is the economic trend in the next stage?
With regard to the economic trend in the future, Xu Hongcai believes that due to the regulation of the real estate market, the growth rate of real estate investment and housing consumption may slow down in the second quarter, and it is difficult for the overall consumer demand to rebound sharply in the short term. It is expected that the economic operation will still face some downward pressure in the second quarter, but from the perspective of the whole year, it is still expected to achieve the expected goal of around 6.5%.
The research report of Minsheng Securities pointed out that with the further tightening of real estate regulation and control, real estate investment will be affected, and infrastructure can only be bottomed out due to financial pressure. It is expected that the annual economic growth will show a trend of high before low and overall stability.
Data Map: Buyers consult sales staff. China News Agency issued Tang Yanjun photo
In response to the downward pressure on the economy, Xu Hongcai suggested that we should do everything possible to increase the income of ordinary people and promote consumption growth, and at the same time continue to promote mass entrepreneurship and innovation, strive to increase employment and maintain the stability of the employment situation.
In terms of macro-control, Xu Hongcai believes that macro-control should maintain its strength, maintain the continuity and stability of macro-policies, persist in striving for progress while maintaining stability as long as the economy operates within a reasonable range, and pay attention to the long-term supply-side structural reform.
"In the short term, we should also enhance the flexibility of policies. Monetary policies should put risk prevention in a prominent position, especially pay close attention to liquidity risks." Xu Hongcai said, in addition, it is necessary to ensure that housing prices in first-tier cities do not fluctuate greatly, so as to maintain the stable development of the real estate market. (End)