The demand performance is stable, and it is estimated that the price resistance of soda ash in the distant month is relatively strong.

On October 13, most of the domestic futures market energy plates were red. Among them, the performance of soda ash futures was strong, and the main contract closed up slightly by 1.11% to 1724 yuan.

On the supply side, Huatai Futures pointed out that the operating rate of soda ash this week was 88.78%, up 0.62% from the previous month, and the output was 691,100 tons, up 0.7% from the previous month.

On the demand side, Guantong Futures said that in the downstream of heavy caustic soda, two float glasses were ignited recently, one photovoltaic glass was ignited, and the next production line was planned to ignite, and the subsequent demand for heavy caustic soda was still expected to rebound; The downstream demand of light alkali is relatively stable, and overall, the demand performance is relatively stable.

In terms of inventory, according to Founder Interim Futures, as of October 12, 2023, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 314,700 tons, an increase of 39,700 tons from the previous month, up 14.44%. Among them, the light inventory is 229,000 tons, and the heavy inventory is 85,700 tons.

For the market outlook, Industrial Futures said that the general direction of soda ash accumulation in the fourth quarter has been basically clear. The willingness to hold goods and replenish stocks in the downstream is reduced, and the spot price is lowered one after another. However, the negative effect of soda ash price difference structure on soda ash supply growth may be fully reflected. Among them, the main price of soda ash was significantly discounted to the spot price of 1200 yuan/ton, and the price in May was significantly discounted to the main price, which was lower than the cost line of ammonia-alkali method investigated by Steel Union. Affected by this, we expect that the price resistance of soda ash in the far month is relatively strong, and it is relatively easier to trade the supply growth expectation in the near month. The follow-up core focuses on the path of convergence of large basis difference.