The ＂buying gold fever＂ in the Spring Festival continues to heat up, and the subsequent gold price is still running at a high level.

The traditional gold sales season is around the Spring Festival. The gold sales counters in major shopping malls are welcoming customers after customers. Buy gold ornaments for family members, buy gold bars for investment, and young people save "golden beans", and the consumption of gold is high.

According to the China Gold Association, in 2023, the national gold consumption was 1,089.69 tons, up 8.78% year-on-year. According to the Global Gold Demand Trend Report released by the World Gold Council recently, the domestic consumption of gold ornaments in China reached 282 billion yuan in 2023, a record high, and it is predicted that the demand for gold consumption will remain strong in 2024.

Demand for gold consumption and investment is heating up.

At the beginning of 2024, a "China Golden New Year Exhibition" was held in Shuibei, Shenzhen, the largest gold and jewelry trading center in China, with more than 1,000 franchisees’ representatives, 8 enterprises with direct ownership of China Gold Jewelry and all 31 China gold suppliers participating. The first booth dedicated to China gold products achieved sales of nearly 2 tons of new products, reflecting the "good start" of gold consumption in China in the New Year.

During the Spring Festival holiday, in Beijing Caishikou department store, consumers who buy gold are in an endless stream, and customers at the cashier’s office line up. "My friend’s child is just full moon. This time I’m going to buy a small gold lock for her baby. By the way, I’ll also look at gold products such as small gold bars. If the price is right, I’ll buy some for my children." A young lady who looked at the gold ornaments in front of the counter told the reporter.

According to the salesperson, the Spring Festival holiday has always been the peak season for gold sales. Recently, gold ornaments of the Year of the Loong Zodiac are popular, and the rising trend of gold price can’t stop consumers from buying. "Gold price is at a high point, although investment may not be the best time, it is also a good tool for saving and hedging".

The data released by China Gold Association proves the fiery gold consumption: in 2023, the national gold consumption was 1,089.69 tons, up 8.78% year-on-year. Among them, the consumption of gold jewelry was 706.48 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.97%; The consumption of gold bars and coins was 299.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.70%.

From the supply side, the domestic raw material gold output in 2023 was 375.155 tons, up 0.84% year-on-year, of which 297.258 tons of gold mineral gold and 77.897 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold were completed. China imported raw materials and produced 144.134 tons of gold, up 14.59% year-on-year.

From the price trend, the international gold price fluctuated at a high level in 2023. According to the data of China Gold Association, the closing price of Au9999 gold in Shanghai Gold Exchange at the end of December 2023 was 479.59 yuan per gram, up 16.69% from the opening price in early 2023, and the weighted average price for the whole year was 449.05 yuan per gram, up 14.97% from the previous year.

Judging from the performance of related enterprises, the unaudited main operating data released by Chow Tai Fook in the three months ended December 31, 2023 showed that the overall retail value of the company increased by 46.1% year-on-year. Zhou Dasheng announced that as of December 31, 2023, the company had 5,106 stores, including 331 self-operated stores and 4,775 franchised stores; In 2023, there were 490 net openings, exceeding the target of a net increase of 400 in the whole year.

From the perspective of the whole category consumer market, behind the "buying gold fever" is the overall increase in consumption of gold, silver and jewelry. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry in China reached 331 billion yuan in 2023, up by 13.3% year-on-year, ranking first in the sub-category of commodity retail.

In addition, investors are enthusiastic about participating in gold investment by buying gold ETF (transactional open index fund). In 2023, the scale of domestic gold ETF positions increased steadily. By the end of 2023, the domestic gold ETF holdings were about 61.47 tons, an increase of 19.53% compared with the same period of last year. From the perspective of net worth performance, all 14 gold ETFs have achieved positive returns, with annual performance returns of 15%-17%.

Zhang Yongtao, vice president and secretary general of China Gold Association, analyzed that in 2023, the domestic consumer market recovered, and gold jewelry processing and retail enterprises continued to innovate in the design of gold jewelry products, which promoted the consumption demand of gold jewelry in China. At the same time, gold bars and coins with relatively low premium are also favored by consumers with physical gold investment needs.

"playing gold ornaments" and "buying golden beans" are popular.

In the face of rising gold prices, "buying gold bars and playing gold ornaments" has become a new choice for many young consumers. Li Tao, a post-90s Beijinger with relevant experience, told reporters that when she got married in early 2023, the "three golds" were buying from banks and gold shops. "Generally speaking, consumers can first buy high-purity gold bars from banks, e-commerce platforms and even Shenzhen Shuibei Market, and then entrust the gold shops to process them into jewelry according to their own designs. The work fee is charged by grams, and you can watch the master play gold all the time. This process is quite participatory. "

Is it more cost-effective to buy gold bars first and then go to the gold shop to process them into jewelry than to buy gold ornaments directly? Many consumers said after trying that the answer is yes. "Banks buy and gold shops only need to pay a small amount of extra labor costs, and they don’t have to pay for the brand premium and expensive labor costs of big brands, which saves money than buying gold ornaments directly. Finally, I can save more than 30 yuan per gram. " Li Tao said.

Will it be more troublesome to "buy gold bars and play gold ornaments"? Does it mean higher risk?

"Before the fight, everyone claimed to have zero loss, and once they were weighed, how to calculate the small amount?" "Although the labor cost of Xiaojindian is low, the risk is also high." "The process of designing styles, issuing bills and on-site supervision is too troublesome …" In the interview, some consumers were cautious. Li Tao said frankly that because some relatives are engaged in the gold and jewelry industry and are familiar with the gold shops entrusted for processing, they dare to give them to the processing party with confidence. "Despite this, I didn’t dare to be wrong all the time." Li Tao said.

In addition to "buying gold bars and playing gold ornaments", many young people also choose to buy "Jin Doudou" and "golden melon seeds" weighing only a few grams for gold consumption and savings.

"The price of gold is higher, young people want to invest, and big gold bars can’t afford it. It is just right to save gold beans." Zhou Jing, who has been buying golden beans intermittently for more than a year, said that golden beans have the advantages of low purchase threshold and low average premium, and can also cultivate personal savings habits. "I spend hundreds of dollars every month, buy a little from time to time, and have saved a small can. It is convenient to buy back and change it into jewelry in the future."

Zhang Yunxuan, who works in a well-known financial institution in Beijing, told reporters that investing in products such as golden beans and golden melon seeds is similar to fixed investment in wealth management and compulsory savings. "Gold is at a high level, and it can’t bear interest. There are hidden costs such as labor costs, handling fees and depreciation behind the golden beans. It is difficult to achieve profit by’ buying low and selling high’, and it may even lose money in the short term, which is more suitable for long-term investment or value preservation." Zhang Yunxuan said.

Insiders said that investing in golden beans and golden melon seeds should also pay attention to risks. On the one hand, the sales platforms are mixed, and related products may not be standardized in terms of quality and color, so we should do a good job in screening and confirming merchants and products. On the other hand, we should pay attention to the timing of purchase and realization, fully consider the possible costs in testing and repurchase, and avoid "drawing water from a bamboo basket" and losing more than the gain.

There are many supporting factors for subsequent gold prices.

In 2023, the international spot gold price rose by more than 13%, the biggest annual increase since 2020. How to treat the subsequent performance of the gold market?

It is understood that the fluctuation of international gold price is highly related to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical risks and other factors. The strong expectation of the market for the US dollar may lead to a correction in the price of gold; When a hot crisis occurs or the dollar weakens, the price of gold may rise. In addition, the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks is also one of the favorable factors to support the performance of gold prices.

Many institutions believe that in 2024, multiple factors will support the high operation of international gold prices: the market expects that the central banks of major western economies will enter the interest rate cut cycle in 2024, coupled with the fact that many major economies around the world will hold elections and the geopolitical situation in hot spots is tense. As a traditional hedging tool, gold is expected to continue to be sought after by global investors. UBS Group AG predicts that the price of gold will reach $2,150 per ounce by the end of this year. Wells Fargo expects gold prices to approach $2,200 an ounce by the end of the year.

It is understood that in the face of uncertainties, global central banks have increased their holdings of gold. According to data released by the World Gold Council, in the first three quarters of 2023 alone, global central banks bought a record 800 tons of gold, up 14% year-on-year. The recent survey results of the association also show that more than 70% of the central banks surveyed expect the global gold reserves to continue to increase in the next 12 months. Among them, in 2023, the People’s Bank of China increased its holdings of gold by 224.88 tons, pushing China’s gold reserves to 2,235.41 tons by the end of 2023. As of December 2023, the People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for 14 consecutive months.

Higher prices will also affect residents’ gold consumption and investment decisions. According to the analysis of the Global Gold Demand Trend Report released by the World Gold Council, it is more likely that the RMB gold price will remain at a historical high in 2024. If the domestic gold price rises further, investors may choose to wait and see and wait for a better opportunity to enter the market.

In this case, blindly "chasing up" is risky. Experts said that at present, the international gold price is at a high level, and there are many uncertain factors affecting its future trend. Appropriate allocation of gold assets can reduce the volatility of the overall family portfolio and improve the risk-adjusted income, but investors need to consider personal risk tolerance and purchase convenience. Rational investment.

It is easier for young people to buy gold. In this regard, industry insiders reminded that young consumers should pay attention to distinguish between investment funds and jewelry funds when investing in gold. Among them, gold coins, gold bars and other investment funds do not have too many technological attributes, and the price is closer to the real-time gold price, and the additional cost is lower; In addition to investing in the collection function, jewelry gold is generally mainly used for wearing decoration, which has high technological value and high additional cost.

How to effectively avoid the risk of gold investment? Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian Finance, believes that residents should have basic knowledge of investment and financial management when buying gold, especially precious metals investment. At the same time, we should do a good job in asset allocation from factors such as personal risk preference, investment ability and investment experience. "investment should buy products that you know, and young people should avoid falling into the’ herd effect’ and follow suit. Investment and financial management should choose the way that suits you. " Dong Ximiao said.